America’s cardiovascular burden from rising temperatures is set to nearly triple by 2050, with a new JAMA Cardiology study predicting thousands more CV deaths per year due to high-emissions and climate change.
- High temperatures are already a known driver of cardiovascular events, however, no studies have attempted to link climate change to rising CV risk.
- Unideal temperature exposure is already estimated to contribute to 1.7M-5M deaths globally each year, of which CVD represents the largest fraction.
To model the scale of the problem, researchers analyzed heat-related CVD across 3.1k U.S. counties using Global Burden of Disease data from 2010–2016 and projected outcomes forward to 2050 under varying emissions scenarios.
- Current heat-attributable CVD burden sits at 138.5 DALYs per 100,000.
- Under high-emissions projections, that figure rises to 418.2 DALYs per 100,000 by 2050.
- Middle- and low-income counties might see twice the relative increase compared to high-income areas.
- By the way, “DALY” is just a fancy way of saying one healthy year of life lost.
Moreover, demographics will compound the problem even if temperatures don’t rise as projected.
- An aging U.S. population is expected to drive a 34% increase in heat-attributable CVD DALYs by 2050, independent of any temperature changes.
The clinical implications are more immediate than they might seem. Heat and dehydration directly affect cardiovascular disease and can interact with common cardiac medications.
- For example, beta-blockers and ACE inhibitors both influence thermoregulatory balance, meaning dose adjustments may be warranted during peak heat months.
So what can cardiologists do with this information? On the clinical side, it comes down to awareness.
- Both patients and providers can expect heat to become a more prevalent risk factor for CV events in the years to come.
- This means education is key, both to addressing how heat impacts a patient, and what can be done to avoid unnecessary exposure.
The Takeaway
Wherever you stand on the climate change debate, heat is an undeniable CV risk factor and this JAMA study serves as a reminder that a warming planet could keep increasing that risk.
