A JACC study suggests that atrial fibrillation is far more prevalent than many previously thought, estimating that nearly one in 20 American adults have been diagnosed with the disease.
UCSF researchers analyzed medical records from 29M adults who received hospital-based care in California from 2005 to 2019 (51yr avg. age, 54% women, 50% White), finding that a whopping 2M (6.8%) of them had been diagnosed with AFib.
- AFib rates increased dramatically during the study period, from 4.49% in 2005-2009 to 6.82% in 2015-2019.
- That increase was greatest among younger patients, males, minorities, and patients with hypertension and diabetes.
When these results are applied across the U.S., the researchers estimate that at least 10.55M Americans are currently diagnosed with AFib, representing 4.48% the U.S. adult population.
- That’s far higher than previous estimates, including a pair of JAMA and Circulation studies that estimated nationwide AFib rates of 2.26M and 5.1M back in 2000, and forecasted that 3.33M and 7.5M adults would have AFib by 2020.
Since all of these studies only looked at patients who were already diagnosed, true AFib prevalence is likely far higher, with the authors noting that wearable-based arrhythmia detection might drive far more significant diagnosis increases in the future.
The Takeaway
Although few readers are likely surprised that AFib diagnosis is on the rise, this study’s 51% growth rate and 4.48% prevalence estimate truly are shocking, and suggest that we might see a wave of AFib-related care in the future.
